West Memphis, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

800
FXUS64 KMEG 250840
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 339 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain today, then become
  more isolated over the weekend.

- Temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s this weekend,
  warming to the mid and upper 80s by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Weak, zonal flow persists aloft across the eastern CONUS as seen
from 00z RAOBs and satellite imagery. Weak height falls associated
with a remnant/decaying MCV are allowing for storms to persist
throughout the Midsouth this morning. A reinvigoration of these showers
and storms is expected this afternoon as MLCAPE diurnally increases
to near 1000 J/kg area-wide. RAP/HRRR soundings show shear to
increase with effective bulk shear values around 40 knots.
However, most of the hodograph curvature is nearly nonexistent.
So, multicells with transient supercells are likely to be the
predominant storm mode. In terms of hazards, parameter will remain
on the low-end with a chance for some gusty winds and small hail
through tonight. Around .5" - .75" of additional rainfall is
possible with any storms through this evening.

As storms continue today, a nebulous low is forecast to form
across the Great Lakes. A cold front will subsequently move into
the Midsouth from the north, helping to dry the region out and
make rain chances more isolated through the weekend. Some
potential for fog does exist Saturday morning, especially along
and south of the boundary where breaks in cloud cover can occur.

As we move into next week, upper ridging will increase in response
to a deepening trough over the Rockies. This pattern would limit
the coverage of storms, but some models retain CAPE values > 500
J/kg Sunday and Monday where a few storms are possible during the
evening. The trough exits the Rockies Monday afternoon with a cold
front sagging into the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is
keen on keeping the cold front north of the region, slowing down
substantially into the evening. Therefore, SPC has only a slight
risk of severe weather (level 2/5) reaching into far northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Storms associated with the
front will have effective shear above 30 knots and MUCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg. So, as the SPC outlook suggests, some severe
storms are possible with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats.

The front will then stall as the upper system leaves the CONUS
Wednesday, leaving a tropical airmass over the Midsouth into the
last few days of the forecast period. High pressure will gradually
be eroded by a trough from the west, which ensembles are in good
agreement on. Consequentially, more showers and storms would be
supported in this upper environment, similar in nature to the past
few days of weather this week to end the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Messy TAF set remains this issuance. Isolated shower and
occasional thunderstorm chances will increase over the next
several hours as an upper level disturbance pushes in. A brief
lull in precipitation will exist around sunrise before the next
round pushes in ahead of a cold front. One thing to note is that
CAMs are really struggling with both impulses given the amount of
timing uncertainty. By 00Z, precipitation will finally exit all TAF
sites, behind the cold front. With each wave of precipitation,
intermittent drops to MVFR/IFR conditions are expected. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail. South/southwest winds will remain
sub 10 kts over the next 30 hrs. A pretty good signal for fog
along already saturated soil exists across the Mid-South overnight
tomorrow. A TEMPO was added for such at MEM.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH